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Wings Weekly: Edvinsson Makes Debut, Wings Freefall Down Draft Lottery Standings (Mar 13-21)

Updated: Apr 29, 2023

Jordan Wohl, Staff Writer

Photo//Brian Bradshaw Sevald/USA TODAY SPORTS


Welcome to Wings Weekly: a regular column giving you a quick recap of the week that was and the week that will be for the 11-time Stanley Cup Champion Detroit Red Wings.


Weekly Results (0-3-0):


March 14 vs Nashville (19th best team in NHL): 2-1 Loss

Nashville’s Juuse Saros is one of the few elite goaltenders in the NHL and played like it. The Wings outshot the Predators 28-14 and still could not find a way to win. Alex Chiasson remained hot, scoring Detroit’s lone goal.


March 18 vs Colorado (Defending Champions): 5-1 Loss

This matchup against the defending Stanley Cup Champions Colorado Avalanche at home was also 2021 6th overall pick Simon Edvinsson’s NHL debut. He received 15:34 of ice time paired with Robert Hagg on the third line and received a ton of minutes late in the game once it was out of reach.


March 20 vs Florida (16th best team in NHL): 5-2 Loss

Florida defeats Detroit for the ninth consecutive time as they are getting hot at a great point in the season, going 6-0-1 in their last seven contests. Pius Suter and Dylan Larkin scored, and Ville Husso had 20 saves.


Current Standings Update:


The Wings are ranked 23rd out of 32 teams with 13 games left. Detroit has really struggled with the losses of several players due to injury or trades and have lost 10 of their last 12 games.


In Other News…


With the Red Wings in an apparent free fall, let’s examine the two first-round picks Detroit has in a loaded 2023 Entry Draft.


Fair Warning: we are going to get a little nerdy.


If the Draft Lottery was today, Detroit’s highest pick would have the 10th best odds to win the lottery with a 3.5% chance of winning.


Looking at the nine teams behind Detroit and the Wings’ odds of ending lower in the standings at the end of these final 13 games:


  • Unless these six teams come close to winning out, the Wings will not pass Columbus, San Jose, Chicago, Anaheim, Montreal, or Philadelphia.


  • But here is where it gets interesting: Arizona (4 less points than Detroit), Vancouver (2 points behind), and St. Louis (2 points behind) are all on winning streaks. If the Wings continue to plummet and these three teams keep winning, the Red Wings could end up with as high as the 7th best odds to win the draft lottery (6.5% odds to win 1st overall).


  • If Detroit somehow turns their fortune around and wins down the stretch, they likely will not place higher than 13th. So, their likely window of possibility with their own first round pick is 7th overall to 13 overall, with 8th-10th overall being most likely.


Detroit’s second pick acquired in the Hronek trade relies on the New York Islanders, who are currently in a playoff spot. Should they fall out of a spot by the end of the season, that pick would also end up in the lottery.


However, the pick has top-12 protection, meaning that if the Islanders end up as one of the 12 worst teams in the league, then Detroit would receive New York’s 2024 first round pick. So, if you are a fan that wants the Islanders’ pick this year, you should hope the Islanders end up in the 13-16 pick range.


Another piece of information: a team can only move up a maximum of 10 spots in the Draft Lottery, and only the 16 non-playoff teams are eligible for the draft lottery. The odds of winning the lottery for those 13-16 picks are as follows:

  • 13th worst team: 2% odds to win the lottery, can go as high as 3rd overall

  • 14th: 1.5% odds, becomes 4th overall if won

  • 15th: 0.5% odds, becomes 5th overall if won

  • 16th: 0.5% odds, becomes 6th overall if won


Projected Lines


Suter - Larkin - Raymond

Berggren - Copp - Perron

Kubalik - Veleno - Zadina

Erne - Czarnik - Chiasson


Walman - Seider

Maatta - Oesterle

Edvinsson - Hagg


Husso

Hellberg


Players Out: Robby Fabbri (Lower-body injury, out day-to-day), Ben Chiarot (Day-to-day injury), Michael Rasmussen (Longer-term Injury) Mark Pysyk (Longer-term Injury)


Upcoming Games


Tuesday, March 21 @ St. Louis Blues (24th of 32 Teams)

Thursday, March 23 vs St. Louis Blues (24th of 32 Teams)

Saturday, March 25 @ Philadelphia Flyers (27th of 32 Teams)

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